Reforma previdenciária em 2019: elementos para uma tomada de decisão

Abstract

This article lays out possible implications of a social security reform to be discussed and approved in 2019. In the absence of a social security reform, the authors conclude it will be virtually impossible to respect the constitutional limit on public spending by 2026, last year of validity before possible revision. Accordingly, three possible reforms are contemplated: proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) presented in 2016, with simple temporal adjustments; a surrogate proposal by the PEC’s rapporteur; and the authors’ stricter proposal, which involves a higher minimum retirement age and a shorter grandfather clause. The results show that the authors’ stricter proposal, if approved, could ensure compliance with the spending cap, creating conditions for sustained growth in a context of continuous and gradual fiscal adjustment over the next few years.