Hacia la creación de una moneda común: una propuesta de convergencia coordinada de políticas macroeconómicas en el Mercosur

Abstract

This work analyzes the prospects of macroeconomic coordination within Mercosur and specially between Brazil and Argentina. The challenge represented by the possible “dilution” of Mercosur in larger free trade areas (v.g. Afta) is discussed and the history of the debate between these two countries regarding macroeconomic coordination is described. The alternatives of currency union and a Peso/Real band are also presented. Since both are still a long way off, the joint definition by Brazil and Argentina of a set of basic macroeconomic parameters and goals applied to both countries (“coordinated convergence”), is proposed as the best alternative to be followed. In the long term, the convergence between these two countries would allow them to move towards a currency unification. Within this context, some suggestions for a “soft” institutionalization of the coordination mechanisms are suggested. Finally, the risks of maintaining the status quo - characterized by the lack of any coordination - are shown.