Estratégia de investimento em portos sob condições de incerteza: o caso de um terminal de contêineres no Brasil

Abstract

Infrastructure concession projects are characterized by long-term maturity and large investments. During contractual period, uncertainties in demand may also compromise the planning for the execution of expansion works. In this context, optimization models for decision making under uncertainty are essential to evaluate this class of projects, in a way that complements traditional analyzes using the Discounted Cash Flow method. Including flexibilities, the evaluation of these projects allows facing future uncertainties, in addition to obtaining optimal solutions for the sharing of risks between the granting authority and the concessionaire. This study uses Real Options Theory to assess the flexibility of capacity expansion in stages in port infrastructure projects, with American options. The model is applied to a real container terminal case in Brazil. Comparative analysis of scenarios was made using discounted cash flow methodology and real options, including demand sensitivity analysis. The result is that the project becomes viable by evaluating with Real Options, also provides both, investor and port authority, a gain in decision-making flexibility, in which it is possible to check the best opportunity windows to perform the expansion in phases. It shows the best opportunity windows to perform the stages’ expansion. In addition, the study stands out for dealing with a very current and rarely explored topic associated to real options in Brazil. Another contribution was the development of a flexible pricing model for options, which can be adapted to other infrastructure models.