A flexibilidade de abandono em concessões de infraestrutura de transporte : um estudo de caso em rodovias no Brasil

Abstract

Brazil's infrastructure investment profile has been changing. Federal public investment in transport infrastructure dropped by 40% between 2010 and 2020, with private investment growing by 73% over the same period. However, concessions face relevant issues, such as traffic demand. This study evaluates the early termination flexibility of road concessions, foreseen in the recent regulation, based on the real option theory. Early termination is modeled after an American put option using the binomial tree method. The model was applied to a real case of a Brazilian public highway, showing that the put option could be excessively valuable and encourage concessionaires to, in advance, deliver projects with supposedly long-term financial sustainability. This study contributes to simulate the impact of termination regulation of highway contracts, draw attention to its possible effects on the behavior of concessionaires and, in this regard, to propose future studies to better address contractual risks in highway concessions.