Avaliação de efeitos locais da construção de usinas eólicas nos municípios brasileiros : uma abordagem por controle sintético

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of wind farm plant construction on municipal economies. More specifically, it analyzes the evolution of the GDP per capita of municipalities that received investments in wind farm plant construction from 2007 to 2014, compared to a group of municipalities with similar characteristics which underwent no such intervention. Data were obtained from a municipal database constructed by consolidating 247 variables from 12 different sources. The dimensionality of the parametric space was reduced using adaLASSO to select the most important covariates. Synthetic control was applied for each case, resulting in 37 individual assessments which were then compiled and analyzed in an aggregated manner. The heterogeneous results showed positive median effects in line with the reviewed literature. The median effects compiled in municipalities ranged from +3.3 to +10.1% when compared with the control group. Effects were more pronounced starting from two years after construction and in wind parks with higher investments.