Capacidade que circula vazia: política pública para o aproveitamento do fluxo ferroviário de retorno no transporte de carga geral e conteinerizada

Abstract

Brazil’s railway network operates under a structural directional imbalance. Along export corridors, trains run fully loaded toward ports and return to inland regions empty or underutilized. This idle capacity represents transportation infrastructure that has already been built, financed, and put into operation, yet generates no revenue and does not divert freight from road transport. This paper argues that utilizing return flows to transport general cargo and containerized freight is the lowest-unit-cost way to increase rail’s share of Brazil’s freight transportation matrix, as it requires no physical expansion of the railway network. Drawing on primary evidence from a regular operation supplying ceramic tiles from the interior of São Paulo state to Rondonópolis (Mato Grosso), which has been underway since 2023, the study identifies five market failures that explain why this opportunity remains untapped despite its demonstrated profitability: sunk costs associated with cargo qualification, information asymmetry regarding available capacity, minimum scale requirements incompatible with the fragmented nature of general cargo, working capital constraints associated with inventory in transit, and fragmented accountability across the intermodal supply chain. Based on this diagnosis and on international and cross-sectoral experiences, the paper proposes the National Program for the Utilization of Return Rail Capacity, bringing together six public policy instruments of a regulatory, normative, fiscal, and promotional nature, supported by a phased implementation plan, cost estimates, risk analysis, and monitoring indicators.