Um cenário para a economia brasileira com permanência da austeridade fiscal e redução da vulnerabilidade externa

Abstract

The article analyzes the outlook for the Brazilian economy for 2004/2010, using a simple model of macroeconomic consistency combining national accounts, balance of payment, public accounts, job market and investment finance. It is assumed that the government adopts a mix of policies based on the reinforcement of the fiscal austerity and the strengthening of the external adjustment. It is also supposed that, in a less hostile external environment, the eventual pressures to appreciate the exchange rate would be compensated through a policy of reduction of the official external debt and through an accumulation of reserves. In the basic scenario, the economy would grow 3,5% p.a. in 2003/2006 and 4,7% p.a. in 2007/2010. In this context, the public debt would decline from 57% of GDP in 2002 to 45% of GDP in 2010 and the ratio Net external debt/Exports of goods from 2,9 to 0,6 in the same period. In this scenario, a slight reduction of the real interest rate would occur, and Brazil would obtain, in the second half of the decade, the “investment grade” rating. Naturally, this aim requires the continuity of the structural reforms of the economy.