It is not enough to be 'tech’: transgenic soybean yield shock effect on deforestation and land use in Brazil

Abstract

Based on the introduction of transgenic soybean seed in Brazil, this paper estimates the potential effects of this agricultural yield shock on the land use of the three main Brazilian biomes. Using an empirical model of differences-in-differences at 9 km × 9 km pixel level and detailed MapBiomas, the study calculated whether the potential increase in soybean productivity following transgenic seed introduction influenced the expansion or decrease in the main natural and agribusiness land use, considering possible heterogeneities between the Amazon, Cerrado and Mata Atlântica biomes. Results suggest that, in the Amazon, effects of this shock behave similarly to a Jevons paradox—in which the increase in productivity of the land production factor would have further encouraged its use or occupation. In biomes with more consolidated land use, such as the Mata Atlântica and Cerrado, this yield shock was unable to sustain a Forest Transition trajectory based on land sparing. For both biomes, the main perceived transitions resulted in less productive and profitable agribusiness uses for soybeans; whereas in the Amazon it was possible to observe a decrease in native vegetation for not only soybean occupation, but also for less profitable agribusiness uses, such as pastures. As the intensification of agribusiness production and productivity gains are desired and strategic for national development, this article contributes to further understand that these strategies do not automatically lead to a path of environmental conservation. Public policies responsible for supervising and monitoring illegal activities must be able to prevent deforestation expansion and go hand in hand with the sustainable development of the agribusiness sectors, avoiding the social costs of potential negative externalities, so this development is synergistic with combating climate change.