O desenvolvimento de políticas industriais sistêmicas na área de energia: uma análise a partir das políticas implementadas para a expansão da capacidade de geração de energia eólica no Brasil

Abstract

Industrial policies are a central theme in the debate on the development agenda. In the 21st century, industrial policies should be part of the development strategies aimed at addressing the climate emergency, generating jobs and income, and reducing poverty and inequality. In this context, the development of wind energy stands out as one of the cases of industrial policies implemented over the past two decades in Brazil that yielded significant results for industry development. For this reason, and because it focuses on the development of a renewable energy, this experience is particularly relevant for advancing the debate on designing industrial policies in the energy sector. Based on the theoretical framework of innovation systems, this thesis developed an analytical model that organizes the main dimensions to be considered in the process of structuring systemic industrial policies. Using this model, the thesis analyzed two decades of implementation of Brazil’s wind energy industrial policy. The analysis covered the global and local wind industry dynamics, the development experiences of wind industry in the United States of America (USA) and China, and the policies implemented in Brazil. These policies were organized into three categories: market formation policies for wind power generation (Proinfa, energy auctions, and the free energy market), investment financing policies for energy generation (BNDES financing for energy infrastructure and its local content policy), and innovation and supply chain financing policies (Program R&D Aneel, BNDES financing for the industry, and Finep funding for innovation). The results indicate that Brazil's wind industrial policy was demand-led and evolved through three distinct phases: an initial learning phase from 2002 to 2009, an acceleration phase of industrial development from 2009 to 2016, and a transition phase marked by a shift from energy demand driven by auctions to the free market, alongside a crisis in the wind turbine supply chain in 2024. Each phase had distinct impacts on the wind turbine supply chain. The thesis concludes that, particularly in its second phase, the wind industrial policy was successful in attracting investments in wind power generation and fostering a local supply chain, including the diversification of established industries into the wind sector. However, throughout the entire policy cycle, it was characterized by the limited inclusion of domestic companies in the strategic segments of the supply chain, such as wind turbine manufacturing. The management of wind turbine demand and the policy’s ability to foster cooperation among the actors in the National Innovation System were crucial factors in the outcomes achieved. Among the recommendations for future industrial policies in the energy sector, the thesis highlights the importance of adopting a systemic approach guided by national challenges. This approach should integrate the coordination of demand for goods and services with financing policies for industry and innovation. Furthermore, it is recommended to strengthen the innovative capabilities of public organizations responsible for policy execution.