Fundo de Amparo ao Trabalhador (FAT): resultados recentes e perspectivas

Abstract

The Workers' Assistance Fund (FAT) is traditionally the main source of funding for the Brazilian development bank (BNDES). In recent years, important institutional and legislative changes that will have an impact on the dynamics of the FAT's accounts have been implemented, such as changes to the rules for accessing unemployment insurance and salary bonuses, the introduction of the long-term rate (TLP) and the Pension Reform, which, among other things, allowed the inclusion of pension expenditures in the FAT's obligations. Recently, in 2023 and 2024, the possibility of financing innovation and digitalization operations forindustry at thereferencerate(FAT TR) and theexpansion of the list of FAT remuneration indexes beyond the TLP, including other market options, such as fixed rates and the Selic rate (FAT Flex), were approved. Based on this context, this text aims to analyze the impact of some of the changes mentioned on the financial situation of the FAT and to assess its prospects, through projections of its results for the coming years. The results show that, in the medium and long term, the prospects for the FAT are positive, as long as the fund's resources do not continue to be directed to payingsocial security expenses. Otherwise, the consequences for the fund's results and assets could be harmful, and in more pessimistic scenarios, they could even result in a reduction in the FAT's assets as a percentage of GDP.